If tournaments were determined by FIFA rankings, then the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations would have a clear favourite.
Fresh off their run to the 2022 World Cup semi-finals. Morocco are ranked 13th in the world and are on decent form over the past year. They’re looking for their first title since 1976 but their general good form over recent years hasn’t translated into AFCON success. Morocco haven’t even reached the semi-finals in any of the past nine tournaments.
That said, solid defending can win tournaments. The Atlas Lions only conceded one goal in their first five games at the World Cup before their semi-final loss to France, and only conceded four in total in 2023. If Morocco’s defense, led by goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, can match their World Cup form, then they have a good shot at a first AFCON title in almost half a century.
The last seven Africa Cup of Nations tournaments have had seven different winners, but the hosts didn’t win, or even reach the final, in any of those tournaments.
That’s not great news for hosts Cote d’Ivoire, who won AFCON in 2015 but are in a tough group with Nigeria this time out.
Nigeria are unbeaten in seven going into this tournament, but could only manage two draws against relatively weak opposition in the last international break. They’ll be hoping star striker Victor Osimhen can push them on to a first AFCON title since 2013.
Osimhen was a key part of Napoli’s Serie A triumph last season and was ranked 8th best in the world by this year’s Ballon d’Or as well as being named CAF African Footballer of the Year. He is joined by a host of talent up front, including 23-year-old Victor Boniface, who is enjoying a breakout season at Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen with 16 goals in all competitions for the German club.
The last hosts to win AFCON were Egypt in 2006, who will be hoping Mohamed Salah can bring his strong form this season into the Africa Cup of Nations. Salah has 18 goals for Premier League leaders Liverpool this season and scored four goals for Egypt against Djibouti in November. Egypt are in Group B with Ghana, who are missing key players Thomas Partey and Tariq Lamptey through injury.
North African sides make up four of the top five sides in FIFA’s rankings, but none has won an AFCON tournament south of the Sahara since 2010.
Since winning AFCON on home turf in 2004, Tunisia have only got past the quarter-finals once, and that was in Egypt in 2019. They face the toughest group based on FIFA rankings with Mali, South Africa and Namibia making up Group E.
Algeria won AFCON in 2019, but haven’t made it past the group stage in three of the four most recent tournaments to be held outside North Africa.
Algeria go into this tournament unbeaten in 2023 and have strengthened their squad with the addition of Roma’s attacking midfielder Houssem Aouar. The one-time French international switched to the country of his parents last summer and has since played five games for Algeria, scoring twice in a win over Cape Verde. Algeria will be hoping Aouar can recover from injury in time for the tournament. They are alongside Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Angola in Group D, which is the weakest on paper.
In 2021, Senegal won the Africa Cup of Nations with stars like Kalidou Koulibaly and Sadio Mane at their peak. Both had poor spells last season before moving to clubs in Saudi Arabia in the summer, but with the likes of Tottenham Hotspur’s Pape Matar Sarr and Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson adding to Senegal’s already very strong squad, a back-to-back AFCON title could be within reach.
Senegal face a challenging group including Cameroon, who have recalled Manchester United goalkeeper Andre Onana after he was booted out of the squad during the 2022 World Cup, and Guinea, whose striker Serhou Guirassy is among the most in-form players in Europe this season with 17 goals in 14 Bundesliga matches for Stuttgart.
2012 saw underdogs Zambia surprise everyone to win AFCON. Could there be another surprise this year?
With the best third-place teams reaching the knockout stages, there’s always a chance that a team could put together a run to the tournament’s latter stages with a few surprise results.
Source: Forbes